* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192015 10/16/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 49 61 73 85 93 96 100 97 93 89 83 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 49 61 73 85 93 96 100 97 93 89 83 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 28 34 40 49 59 69 79 84 86 87 84 78 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 4 6 11 9 14 2 2 5 9 14 13 17 19 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -2 0 0 0 -2 -3 6 3 -3 -4 -4 -4 0 6 8 SHEAR DIR 55 47 24 33 8 349 347 352 336 319 218 206 208 203 196 209 240 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 156 156 156 158 160 159 157 152 153 152 150 146 143 145 144 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 67 67 70 72 69 71 70 68 64 61 54 47 42 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 16 18 22 26 29 31 35 35 35 36 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 6 8 11 11 17 24 34 33 46 51 57 60 86 107 126 134 149 200 MB DIV 74 62 60 73 73 67 111 103 128 120 128 65 89 98 102 51 26 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -4 -6 -3 2 8 4 3 3 8 11 LAND (KM) 1970 2050 2130 2204 2281 2401 2490 2575 2473 2298 2125 1940 1787 1653 1548 1462 1392 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 10.2 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.6 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.9 124.1 125.2 126.2 127.2 128.9 130.4 131.8 133.2 134.6 135.9 137.3 138.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 27 29 30 28 24 25 24 22 17 17 22 27 29 31 33 23 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 0. 5. 12. 19. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 41. 43. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 11. 18. 23. 26. 29. 26. 23. 22. 19. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 36. 48. 60. 68. 72. 75. 72. 68. 64. 58. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.2 122.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 8.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 85.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 27.2% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.8% 0.0% Logistic: 17.3% 74.0% 57.1% 43.7% 32.3% 60.0% 73.7% 74.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 13.3% 6.1% 1.9% 0.9% 5.7% 17.0% 11.1% Consensus: 5.9% 38.2% 27.7% 15.2% 11.0% 21.9% 38.5% 28.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192015 NINETEEN 10/16/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##