* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/15/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 39 38 32 27 26 25 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 2 0 -1 1 1 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 240 246 242 237 242 247 241 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 144 143 144 144 145 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 43 45 45 46 46 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 -4 -19 -30 -40 -22 -22 -26 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -7 13 20 18 10 21 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 601 564 529 492 457 374 349 372 406 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.2 151.5 151.9 152.4 152.8 154.1 155.3 156.1 157.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 6 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 25 24 23 24 29 27 27 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 34. 36. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -12. -18. -23. -27. -29. -29. -28. -29. -31. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. -30. -29. -27. -25. -25. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.3 151.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/15/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.79 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 213.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.21 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.2 62.3 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/15/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##