* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/14/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 27 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 27 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 27 24 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 30 33 36 35 32 29 26 22 25 27 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 8 5 0 2 1 5 4 5 0 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 236 246 251 253 250 240 240 234 232 228 240 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 146 146 145 142 140 140 141 143 146 147 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.9 -53.6 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 43 42 41 42 43 44 42 44 44 44 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 6 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 49 39 27 16 6 1 10 -7 -3 -8 -19 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 20 20 9 15 12 16 0 3 -2 0 -8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 4 5 5 2 1 0 2 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 735 685 635 593 550 481 412 347 289 243 266 349 472 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.4 16.8 17.0 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.9 150.3 150.6 150.8 151.1 151.6 152.1 152.8 153.8 155.1 156.6 158.1 159.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 19 21 22 24 24 27 32 36 32 29 30 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -20. -23. -26. -28. -29. -28. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -8. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -11. -10. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -22. -26. -28. -33. -36. -35. -35. -34. -35. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.8 149.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 294.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/14/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##