* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/13/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 32 29 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 35 32 29 27 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 36 32 29 26 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 31 32 31 31 32 32 27 23 21 26 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 259 253 247 244 260 261 262 244 242 241 240 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 147 146 146 145 144 142 139 138 141 142 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 45 43 45 46 42 42 44 47 47 46 46 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 12 10 9 8 6 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 47 43 33 34 24 14 -3 -4 -5 -10 -16 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 5 11 26 11 14 -14 15 13 -10 -15 -16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 4 2 5 3 1 0 1 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 960 882 805 747 690 604 535 481 444 422 395 382 393 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.5 16.5 16.3 16.1 15.7 15.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 148.2 148.9 149.5 149.9 150.3 150.8 151.2 151.5 152.0 152.6 153.4 154.4 155.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 21 19 18 19 22 24 25 24 25 32 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -26. -25. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -16. -22. -26. -28. -31. -33. -36. -35. -35. -33. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.6 148.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 43.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.24 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 328.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/13/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##