* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORA EP182015 10/12/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 59 57 51 47 43 39 35 32 28 25 26 26 26 27 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 59 57 51 47 43 39 35 32 28 25 26 26 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 61 59 53 47 41 35 30 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 18 21 20 25 24 28 28 26 27 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 0 1 2 4 2 6 10 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 215 220 237 246 264 254 247 245 236 235 245 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 149 147 147 148 147 144 141 137 134 131 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 42 42 39 40 44 46 48 46 49 49 45 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 50 56 53 52 55 38 28 2 -31 -28 -47 -51 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 63 34 0 6 8 27 66 65 12 23 5 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1387 1296 1205 1135 1066 946 879 850 835 842 857 891 931 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.4 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.5 144.3 145.1 145.7 146.3 147.1 147.4 147.4 147.3 147.0 146.7 146.3 145.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 5 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 20 18 19 22 23 21 18 16 14 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -20. -20. -21. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -1. -3. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -28. -32. -35. -34. -34. -34. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.3 143.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.18 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 542.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.31 -2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.87 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.65 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.6% 25.4% 21.6% 16.6% 11.8% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 3.7% 2.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.6% 1.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 10.5% 7.9% 6.0% 4.4% 4.8% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 NORA 10/12/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##