* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHTEEN EP182015 10/10/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 48 57 65 73 77 74 72 70 69 64 57 47 37 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 48 57 65 73 77 74 72 70 69 64 57 47 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 43 47 54 61 67 71 70 67 63 58 50 41 31 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 4 2 4 3 5 4 14 16 19 21 31 38 44 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -8 -4 0 0 -2 2 5 3 2 5 7 5 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 121 135 151 190 193 190 154 176 242 271 249 222 203 214 219 220 226 SST (C) 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.4 27.9 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.0 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 166 162 158 154 155 155 154 152 148 144 147 143 144 139 133 123 118 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 10 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 68 65 62 60 57 57 56 54 52 50 51 54 54 52 42 32 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 16 17 19 21 20 21 21 22 20 18 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -11 -8 6 17 40 58 62 54 54 40 34 21 29 44 26 4 200 MB DIV 22 12 16 18 18 42 68 57 63 36 57 82 109 67 12 -7 -22 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 -1 3 7 6 15 13 -4 -16 LAND (KM) 2363 2237 2113 1992 1871 1667 1517 1384 1284 1202 1168 1179 1269 1423 1580 1757 1929 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.2 12.6 13.2 14.1 15.3 16.8 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 134.5 135.7 136.9 138.1 139.3 141.3 142.8 144.0 144.7 145.0 144.7 144.0 142.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 11 9 7 5 5 5 7 8 10 10 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 46 33 21 18 19 20 23 31 26 17 17 15 23 16 9 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -2. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 13. 14. 13. 13. 10. 6. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 30. 38. 42. 39. 37. 35. 34. 29. 22. 12. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.2 134.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182015 EIGHTEEN 10/10/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.81 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.87 6.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 31.2% 23.6% 17.1% 12.3% 15.8% 39.6% 55.1% Logistic: 10.8% 52.3% 33.0% 21.3% 22.2% 42.3% 57.0% 52.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 35.3% 3.1% 0.7% 1.0% 7.7% 12.7% 2.8% Consensus: 8.1% 39.6% 19.9% 13.0% 11.8% 21.9% 36.4% 36.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182015 EIGHTEEN 10/10/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##