* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 91 82 70 45 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 95 91 82 70 45 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 96 90 80 66 42 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 22 26 29 41 62 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 14 17 9 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 230 229 223 219 214 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 25.7 25.3 23.4 21.7 18.7 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 127 123 104 87 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -49.5 -50.1 -50.3 -50.0 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 54 54 48 50 58 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 122 125 108 67 75 132 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 120 132 123 78 74 141 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 12 12 -27 -17 53 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 891 1122 1394 1739 1641 1060 417 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 24.8 27.6 30.9 34.2 41.7 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 146.6 145.5 144.3 142.8 141.2 137.3 133.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 29 30 33 36 38 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 26 CX,CY: 11/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -10. -22. -32. -39. -45. -50. -55. -60. -63. -66. -70. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -12. -18. -21. -25. -34. -46. -55. -61. -67. -76. -84. -91. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -4. -13. -25. -50. -65. -73. -85. -98.-111.-122.-136.-152.-169.-184.-191. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 21.9 146.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/07/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 503.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##