* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 83 83 81 73 63 49 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 80 83 83 81 73 63 49 33 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 80 82 80 76 64 50 35 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 14 20 19 28 29 46 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 4 3 5 7 6 15 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 128 164 203 218 229 228 236 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.3 22.0 19.3 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 139 135 132 123 90 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.6 -49.8 -49.9 -49.9 -50.1 -51.2 -51.4 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 72 67 58 52 44 45 45 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 29 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 158 151 130 117 79 53 21 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 74 77 54 63 51 44 68 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -9 -4 6 -5 -20 -43 -72 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 589 602 662 774 944 1471 1541 861 400 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 17.2 18.4 20.5 22.6 27.8 33.6 39.8 46.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.7 149.7 148.6 147.5 146.3 143.5 139.5 134.4 129.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 19 24 26 31 35 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 27 27 6 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -6. -13. -20. -23. -25. -28. -31. -33. -36. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. -19. -27. -33. -36. -39. -44. -48. -53. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -4. -2. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 8. 6. -2. -12. -26. -42. -52. -62. -70. -80. -91.-103.-114.-123. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.9 150.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.31 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.14 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 17.1% 14.0% 4.2% 3.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 13.2% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##