* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 73 72 71 71 68 57 40 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 73 72 71 71 68 57 40 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 74 73 73 73 75 68 54 42 35 30 26 26 28 29 29 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 17 19 19 26 37 47 49 46 42 47 44 34 23 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 4 2 2 3 12 7 9 2 1 -1 -4 -4 -4 1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 243 212 224 250 243 238 248 259 273 292 300 289 262 253 256 259 282 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 25.6 20.8 20.5 19.5 19.2 18.0 17.2 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.4 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 121 123 123 115 87 86 82 80 75 72 71 70 68 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 103 104 107 108 103 81 80 77 74 69 67 65 64 62 60 59 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -51.6 -52.2 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.6 -55.0 -56.8 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.9 0.9 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 53 51 54 55 49 44 38 39 40 49 56 50 40 35 34 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 34 35 36 40 43 40 34 31 28 23 23 26 23 15 9 850 MB ENV VOR 96 82 70 69 76 81 98 122 128 134 125 114 115 116 89 33 -13 200 MB DIV 29 28 10 11 47 53 56 19 31 7 2 4 16 -3 -16 -47 -45 700-850 TADV 22 11 13 19 15 -10 -15 -7 10 35 42 33 15 -33 -13 -60 -37 LAND (KM) 903 873 833 807 818 822 837 1188 1650 1428 1046 800 621 483 415 409 402 LAT (DEG N) 34.6 35.4 36.3 37.1 37.9 39.3 40.5 41.6 42.5 43.2 44.0 44.7 45.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.9 63.8 62.8 61.0 59.2 53.9 47.2 40.0 33.1 26.7 22.0 18.8 16.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 16 19 24 27 27 25 21 15 11 8 5 2 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 5 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 11 CX,CY: 5/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -22. -27. -32. -37. -42. -48. -51. -54. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -19. -22. -26. -29. -33. -34. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 3. 6. 2. -7. -11. -16. -24. -25. -20. -23. -32. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -18. -35. -45. -55. -68. -74. -73. -77. -87. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 34.6 64.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.70 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 409.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.50 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 12.4% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 6.0% 3.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 6.1% 4.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 4( 12) 4( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 73 72 71 71 68 57 40 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 72 71 71 68 57 40 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 70 69 69 66 55 38 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 64 64 61 50 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT