* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 74 72 70 69 67 65 59 48 36 32 28 25 26 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 74 72 70 69 67 65 59 48 36 32 28 25 26 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 74 70 67 66 67 70 64 51 41 37 35 37 41 43 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 11 9 18 16 30 42 54 50 38 29 22 12 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 4 8 2 4 8 4 4 -1 -2 0 3 9 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 250 234 217 235 264 240 256 260 262 284 281 244 200 210 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 25.9 25.6 21.7 18.5 15.9 16.3 15.2 14.9 14.6 13.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 121 121 120 117 116 91 81 75 74 70 69 67 66 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 104 103 103 104 104 105 84 76 71 70 66 65 63 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.5 -50.4 -50.0 -50.4 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.2 -51.0 -51.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.7 1.8 2.4 2.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 59 56 54 54 58 54 51 46 47 47 56 59 48 43 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 37 37 36 37 40 42 40 36 37 35 36 40 34 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 104 102 80 61 72 80 112 141 148 139 155 129 144 133 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 36 24 50 36 31 64 65 33 45 33 16 17 13 11 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 19 28 17 3 12 4 -30 -22 0 -15 57 73 55 1 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 974 987 922 888 837 812 756 832 1238 1682 1176 790 512 353 255 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.6 34.5 35.4 36.3 38.1 39.9 41.5 43.3 45.1 46.9 48.6 50.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.8 65.2 64.7 63.6 62.6 58.8 52.8 45.6 38.1 30.6 24.5 20.0 17.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 15 21 27 29 29 26 20 15 11 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 4 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 545 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -17. -24. -31. -36. -42. -47. -52. -56. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -0. 2. -1. -8. -8. -11. -10. -5. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -21. -32. -44. -48. -52. -55. -54. -64. -67. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 32.6 65.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 336.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/05/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 3( 13) 3( 16) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 74 72 70 69 67 65 59 48 36 32 28 25 26 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 77 75 74 72 70 64 53 41 37 33 30 31 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 73 71 69 63 52 40 36 32 29 30 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 67 65 59 48 36 32 28 25 26 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT