* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OHO CP072015 10/04/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 45 48 57 60 64 70 72 70 66 63 53 40 19 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 45 48 57 60 64 70 72 70 66 63 53 40 19 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 46 49 52 56 60 60 56 53 47 38 28 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 14 14 11 14 8 8 10 16 15 19 41 56 77 92 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 0 3 7 4 0 -4 -1 1 0 -4 6 8 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 103 93 64 70 85 59 81 102 153 218 199 197 189 240 235 220 215 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.7 26.9 26.0 23.6 20.6 19.1 16.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 148 148 147 145 145 144 142 139 141 133 130 107 76 68 66 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 -51.0 -52.3 -53.2 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 72 75 73 75 72 67 62 59 60 61 58 61 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 22 22 25 24 24 26 28 28 26 25 21 21 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 70 57 62 64 62 68 69 93 120 112 105 91 79 -15 -45 -8 27 200 MB DIV 72 73 54 41 26 23 32 54 73 60 64 14 2 65 115 168 176 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 5 10 3 1 1 3 7 3 -4 21 -10 -19 LAND (KM) 655 626 598 578 559 528 515 523 523 497 491 536 650 1522 1279 770 432 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.4 16.2 17.4 19.1 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 154.2 154.3 154.3 154.5 154.6 154.5 153.9 153.1 152.3 151.6 150.7 149.7 148.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 2 1 2 4 4 5 6 9 10 29 45 38 31 26 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 25 25 26 25 25 27 23 27 17 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 25. 24. 22. 19. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -6. -14. -31. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 9. 11. 11. 7. 6. 1. 1. -0. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 25. 29. 35. 37. 35. 31. 28. 18. 5. -16. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.2 154.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.72 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 91.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.22 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.2% 8.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 2.3% 6.3% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 6.0% 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 3.2% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP072015 OHO 10/04/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##