* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/04/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 106 100 96 92 86 79 75 71 65 55 54 47 29 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 115 106 100 96 92 86 79 75 71 65 55 54 47 29 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 115 106 98 91 86 79 78 80 78 66 55 48 41 36 34 35 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 26 24 20 23 18 18 23 33 48 53 45 30 28 28 20 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 -4 -2 3 4 7 3 4 3 0 2 3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 308 296 277 264 247 232 241 248 247 258 261 263 277 285 285 275 235 SST (C) 28.9 28.6 27.5 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 23.6 21.0 16.7 13.7 14.2 13.2 12.2 11.7 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 147 132 127 123 123 122 123 101 89 77 72 71 68 67 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 134 117 111 107 107 107 110 93 83 73 69 67 65 64 64 63 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -50.4 -50.3 -50.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.6 -50.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.5 1.2 1.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.3 2.5 1.8 1.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 69 68 66 62 55 53 62 58 53 54 52 58 67 72 81 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 35 36 36 35 38 41 43 42 46 45 36 28 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 108 103 107 108 119 107 99 98 108 137 137 152 117 86 52 56 52 200 MB DIV 47 42 40 53 60 30 27 38 62 74 69 73 -14 21 45 58 27 700-850 TADV 64 53 40 42 29 12 9 -23 -13 48 38 63 51 51 35 22 51 LAND (KM) 856 1005 999 971 963 930 829 788 648 826 1298 1359 879 607 515 634 686 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.7 29.9 31.1 32.3 34.5 36.7 38.7 41.0 43.5 46.0 48.5 51.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.5 68.5 67.5 66.8 66.1 64.5 61.5 57.4 51.4 43.6 35.9 28.6 22.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 13 13 15 18 23 29 31 29 25 20 15 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 41 27 10 5 3 4 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 17 CX,CY: 14/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -6. -13. -23. -34. -45. -58. -67. -75. -82. -89. -93. -97. -98. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -11. -14. -17. -20. -18. -15. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -11. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. 0. 4. 6. 3. 9. 6. -6. -16. -21. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -15. -19. -23. -29. -36. -40. -44. -50. -60. -61. -68. -86.-102.-111.-116. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 27.4 69.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/04/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 22( 46) 13( 53) 10( 58) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 106 100 96 92 86 79 75 71 65 55 54 47 29 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 115 114 108 104 100 94 87 83 79 73 63 62 55 37 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 107 103 97 90 86 82 76 66 65 58 40 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 101 95 88 84 80 74 64 63 56 38 DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 90 83 79 75 69 59 58 51 33 DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 106 97 91 88 86 79 75 71 65 55 54 47 29 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 106 100 91 85 81 74 70 66 60 50 49 42 24 DIS DIS DIS