* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/03/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 108 104 100 88 83 75 71 67 60 49 37 35 30 28 26 V (KT) LAND 115 112 108 104 100 88 83 75 71 67 60 49 37 35 30 28 26 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 110 106 100 87 78 74 75 75 64 53 44 40 41 45 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 26 22 25 23 24 17 16 22 33 48 59 54 41 31 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 3 1 2 0 1 4 1 0 2 -3 -4 -1 0 9 12 SHEAR DIR 313 314 297 277 277 242 224 230 236 244 267 276 286 275 254 183 161 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.6 27.6 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.6 23.9 21.3 17.6 14.3 13.3 13.3 11.8 11.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 150 147 133 123 122 123 124 103 90 79 72 70 69 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 138 137 133 118 107 105 107 110 94 84 75 69 67 66 65 65 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.5 -50.4 -50.8 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -52.0 -52.3 -51.3 -49.6 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 64 64 64 64 61 57 52 57 58 62 68 73 71 65 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 36 36 38 36 38 35 37 39 41 40 37 38 37 39 42 850 MB ENV VOR 146 141 131 131 134 142 129 118 111 112 139 141 146 144 159 226 314 200 MB DIV 65 86 67 49 34 46 21 34 37 46 59 89 71 90 49 73 75 700-850 TADV 53 66 63 57 49 38 12 11 -7 21 59 121 188 134 158 -3 -34 LAND (KM) 596 756 891 922 904 876 867 777 728 623 700 1220 1483 1019 756 707 800 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.7 27.8 29.1 30.3 32.7 34.8 36.8 38.9 41.1 43.4 45.6 47.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.6 71.5 70.4 69.4 68.4 66.9 65.3 62.9 58.8 52.9 45.5 37.1 30.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 15 15 14 13 13 17 22 27 31 29 24 19 16 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 47 34 34 31 13 4 4 10 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -2. -9. -19. -31. -41. -51. -61. -68. -75. -82. -87. -91. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -15. -19. -22. -21. -15. -12. -9. -9. -11. -13. -12. -11. -12. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 1. -0. 0. -4. -2. 0. 2. -0. -6. -4. -6. -4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -11. -15. -27. -32. -40. -44. -48. -55. -66. -78. -80. -85. -87. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 25.6 72.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.23 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 2.9% 1.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 28( 50) 22( 61) 11( 66) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 112 108 104 100 88 83 75 71 67 60 49 37 35 30 28 26 18HR AGO 115 114 110 106 102 90 85 77 73 69 62 51 39 37 32 30 28 12HR AGO 115 112 111 107 103 91 86 78 74 70 63 52 40 38 33 31 29 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 101 89 84 76 72 68 61 50 38 36 31 29 27 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 84 79 71 67 63 56 45 33 31 26 24 22 IN 6HR 115 112 103 97 94 87 82 74 70 66 59 48 36 34 29 27 25 IN 12HR 115 112 108 99 93 89 84 76 72 68 61 50 38 36 31 29 27