* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/03/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 108 107 106 103 93 88 81 78 75 73 72 64 53 45 39 31 V (KT) LAND 110 108 107 106 103 93 88 81 78 75 73 72 64 53 45 39 31 V (KT) LGEM 110 109 107 105 103 95 85 75 71 70 70 65 53 45 41 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 20 25 23 23 25 24 19 26 26 37 51 64 47 39 33 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -1 8 10 4 5 2 3 -2 -4 5 10 7 8 3 3 7 SHEAR DIR 312 301 294 296 293 290 247 229 212 220 244 262 263 261 258 249 275 SST (C) 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.2 27.2 26.8 26.2 26.6 25.5 14.2 20.4 15.5 13.6 13.4 13.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 156 156 156 141 128 123 118 123 114 74 87 76 73 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 140 141 141 125 111 106 101 107 102 71 81 73 70 69 69 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.3 -50.1 -49.5 -49.5 -49.6 -49.7 -50.3 -50.4 -50.9 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.7 -51.0 -53.0 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 8 8 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 61 62 63 61 58 56 58 58 64 59 60 62 66 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 37 38 37 37 38 36 38 39 41 46 47 44 43 42 40 850 MB ENV VOR 137 141 149 154 147 153 162 163 144 149 144 169 162 123 122 105 96 200 MB DIV 61 79 94 99 64 40 42 49 30 56 56 67 53 63 47 38 43 700-850 TADV 29 29 35 68 68 50 40 30 18 0 36 83 88 96 64 44 50 LAND (KM) 390 499 610 751 891 829 758 766 636 555 549 437 901 1538 958 414 142 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 25.1 25.9 26.9 27.9 30.3 32.7 35.1 37.3 39.3 41.5 43.7 45.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.3 73.6 72.9 72.0 71.1 69.4 68.3 67.3 65.2 61.9 56.7 49.5 41.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 13 14 13 13 15 19 26 30 32 31 29 27 26 HEAT CONTENT 48 49 48 38 42 33 10 8 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -12. -23. -32. -40. -47. -54. -61. -68. -73. -77. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -19. -15. -13. -10. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 0. 2. 2. 4. 11. 11. 6. 3. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -7. -17. -22. -29. -32. -35. -37. -38. -46. -57. -65. -71. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 24.3 74.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.96 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.50 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 11.8% 8.6% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.7% 6.0% 4.2% 4.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 6.0% 4.3% 4.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/03/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 27( 48) 25( 61) 14( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 0( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 108 107 106 103 93 88 81 78 75 73 72 64 53 45 39 31 18HR AGO 110 109 108 107 104 94 89 82 79 76 74 73 65 54 46 40 32 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 102 92 87 80 77 74 72 71 63 52 44 38 30 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 97 87 82 75 72 69 67 66 58 47 39 33 25 NOW 110 101 95 92 91 81 76 69 66 63 61 60 52 41 33 27 19 IN 6HR 110 108 99 93 90 84 79 72 69 66 64 63 55 44 36 30 22 IN 12HR 110 108 107 98 92 88 83 76 73 70 68 67 59 48 40 34 26