* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/02/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 116 115 114 108 98 93 87 79 72 67 62 51 43 29 17 V (KT) LAND 115 115 116 115 114 108 98 93 87 79 72 67 62 51 43 29 17 V (KT) LGEM 115 113 111 110 109 109 104 91 78 69 62 56 51 45 40 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 10 16 23 31 22 25 20 31 33 50 61 59 58 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 16 14 7 -2 5 3 6 9 12 2 7 6 10 7 2 2 SHEAR DIR 3 353 323 301 286 287 278 248 240 215 223 224 233 237 235 239 235 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.4 27.6 27.1 26.8 26.6 24.2 18.8 11.5 15.3 13.6 13.6 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 163 165 162 158 143 132 125 123 122 104 82 72 75 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 144 148 145 141 125 114 106 104 105 93 77 70 72 70 70 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.8 -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -49.4 -49.2 -48.9 -49.1 -49.1 -49.4 -50.7 -50.8 -51.6 -50.4 -49.6 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 10 9 8 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 64 61 55 54 52 53 54 56 57 54 54 51 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 35 33 34 36 37 38 39 37 35 35 35 33 33 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 97 117 118 140 149 179 187 156 130 125 134 137 142 120 99 124 182 200 MB DIV 31 58 72 75 70 74 42 53 27 75 43 57 65 37 51 35 59 700-850 TADV 5 16 30 19 15 37 62 54 45 23 10 15 -17 -80 -121 -76 -76 LAND (KM) 241 288 335 436 537 713 689 593 555 617 487 397 400 391 1006 1437 788 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.8 25.6 27.7 30.0 32.2 34.2 36.0 38.2 40.6 43.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.7 74.7 74.7 74.3 74.0 72.9 71.8 70.8 69.9 68.8 66.5 62.7 56.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 7 9 10 12 12 11 10 12 16 23 30 32 31 29 29 HEAT CONTENT 59 54 50 49 60 54 34 22 12 16 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -11. -22. -31. -41. -47. -54. -60. -68. -74. -78. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -10. -8. -5. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -11. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 1. -3. -4. -4. -8. -8. -16. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -1. -7. -17. -22. -28. -36. -43. -48. -53. -64. -72. -86. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 23.0 74.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.42 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 54.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.34 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 13.4% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.8% 13.1% 8.7% 13.6% 10.3% 3.0% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 3.6% 2.8% 3.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 10.0% 7.1% 5.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 31( 52) 30( 67) 28( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 43 60( 77) 4( 78) 2( 79) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 116 115 114 108 98 93 87 79 72 67 62 51 43 29 17 18HR AGO 115 114 115 114 113 107 97 92 86 78 71 66 61 50 42 28 16 12HR AGO 115 112 111 110 109 103 93 88 82 74 67 62 57 46 38 24 DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 104 98 88 83 77 69 62 57 52 41 33 19 DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 90 80 75 69 61 54 49 44 33 25 DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 92 82 77 71 63 56 51 46 35 27 DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 115 116 107 101 97 87 82 76 68 61 56 51 40 32 18 DIS