* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 10/02/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 114 114 112 109 107 99 93 82 78 76 78 73 64 57 43 V (KT) LAND 115 115 114 114 112 109 107 99 93 82 78 76 78 73 64 57 43 V (KT) LGEM 115 114 112 110 109 111 111 101 85 72 65 60 55 48 40 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 6 8 9 11 15 23 23 28 29 37 38 56 71 68 56 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 19 18 13 12 5 4 6 11 8 5 2 5 5 5 3 4 14 SHEAR DIR 28 35 349 307 291 296 274 269 239 231 228 231 238 240 252 261 265 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 28.0 27.6 27.4 26.3 24.2 20.5 18.4 14.5 13.4 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 164 165 165 164 165 137 131 129 117 101 85 80 74 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 141 143 146 148 147 146 118 111 108 98 88 78 75 71 70 70 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.0 -49.0 -48.6 -49.7 -50.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 64 65 63 63 63 56 48 47 56 61 55 45 41 46 40 44 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 32 33 33 36 40 38 38 36 37 39 46 47 45 45 41 850 MB ENV VOR 88 98 108 116 136 167 195 210 173 144 145 76 58 40 0 -31 -15 200 MB DIV 30 41 63 76 60 97 59 72 34 57 22 10 7 0 -10 1 17 700-850 TADV 15 9 11 21 19 27 54 56 55 50 25 -25 -65 -50 -28 24 85 LAND (KM) 245 274 307 385 464 630 687 498 373 337 339 226 213 299 230 738 1317 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.3 23.6 24.3 25.0 26.9 29.3 31.6 33.7 35.7 37.7 39.7 41.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.5 74.6 74.5 74.3 73.7 73.1 72.7 72.4 72.0 71.2 69.4 65.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 9 11 12 11 10 10 11 15 22 28 29 28 28 HEAT CONTENT 59 56 54 49 47 64 48 20 17 19 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -9. -19. -28. -37. -44. -51. -58. -65. -71. -75. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -0. 2. 5. 4. 3. -0. 0. 3. 10. 11. 8. 7. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -16. -22. -33. -37. -39. -37. -42. -51. -58. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 22.9 74.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.33 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.33 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.39 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 391.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 13.3% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.8% 12.6% 8.6% 14.9% 11.7% 4.8% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.6% 10.7% 6.4% 4.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 12.2% 8.3% 6.5% 4.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 10/02/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 30( 52) 30( 66) 28( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 40 43( 66) 29( 76) 5( 77) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 114 114 112 109 107 99 93 82 78 76 78 73 64 57 43 18HR AGO 115 114 113 113 111 108 106 98 92 81 77 75 77 72 63 56 42 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 109 106 104 96 90 79 75 73 75 70 61 54 40 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 103 100 98 90 84 73 69 67 69 64 55 48 34 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 93 91 83 77 66 62 60 62 57 48 41 27 IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 94 92 84 78 67 63 61 63 58 49 42 28 IN 12HR 115 115 114 105 99 95 93 85 79 68 64 62 64 59 50 43 29