* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/30/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 25 21 19 17 17 19 23 29 31 30 32 35 38 41 43 45 V (KT) LAND 30 25 21 19 17 17 19 23 29 31 30 32 35 38 41 43 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 25 21 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 17 20 21 21 20 11 8 10 16 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 2 4 1 3 2 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 242 234 233 244 250 266 260 231 222 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.0 29.9 30.3 30.6 30.5 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 164 165 164 163 162 166 170 169 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 67 64 64 65 66 69 71 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 6 3 -9 -17 -20 -4 5 3 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 33 31 28 26 31 38 59 57 43 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 -4 3 -6 1 1 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 153 172 193 193 207 271 324 364 402 451 478 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.7 102.1 102.5 103.2 103.8 105.1 106.1 107.0 108.0 109.1 110.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 32 32 35 38 44 43 53 57 42 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 11. 18. 25. 29. 32. 35. 39. 42. 46. 48. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -9. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -11. -7. -1. 1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.1 101.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.89 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.15 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/30/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##