* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/30/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 72 75 78 79 83 87 93 98 99 85 74 67 63 56 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 72 75 78 79 83 87 93 98 99 85 74 67 63 56 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 70 74 77 82 84 86 93 102 108 94 74 62 57 54 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 21 20 18 13 11 9 4 9 24 29 23 25 32 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 2 2 6 9 9 1 2 8 5 -1 4 -2 1 2 6 SHEAR DIR 13 14 22 31 30 31 24 19 314 280 239 222 225 252 255 262 243 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.4 27.8 27.3 27.2 26.4 26.9 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 165 165 165 166 165 166 167 164 159 135 129 127 118 123 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 141 142 141 141 138 142 146 146 140 116 110 108 101 103 96 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.2 -50.6 -50.4 -49.5 -48.9 -49.1 -50.6 -51.5 -52.5 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.9 2.1 2.4 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 58 61 62 63 65 66 67 65 65 57 49 35 37 40 37 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 23 25 27 28 30 31 35 38 42 33 27 23 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 23 15 20 33 39 54 81 97 130 150 190 243 162 71 1 -12 27 200 MB DIV 0 9 19 14 2 19 31 64 71 84 63 46 34 35 31 40 44 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 2 6 5 12 10 30 2 9 9 22 18 21 LAND (KM) 665 635 602 564 527 467 446 467 579 657 615 501 569 751 775 758 774 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.2 24.9 24.8 25.0 26.0 27.9 30.2 32.6 34.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.5 71.9 72.3 72.7 73.2 73.9 74.2 74.2 74.0 73.5 72.8 71.7 69.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 2 1 3 8 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 45 46 51 56 59 52 50 50 85 59 40 20 14 14 6 27 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 3. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 15. 19. 23. 9. 0. -4. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 23. 27. 33. 38. 39. 25. 14. 7. 3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.8 71.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.36 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.4% 32.6% 23.0% 17.9% 10.4% 12.1% 11.6% 15.4% Logistic: 13.8% 28.1% 18.2% 10.4% 8.5% 22.4% 24.8% 26.1% Bayesian: 5.9% 46.4% 19.9% 7.1% 0.7% 7.2% 3.4% 2.0% Consensus: 13.4% 35.7% 20.3% 11.8% 6.6% 13.9% 13.3% 14.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/30/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 5( 8) 6( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 69 72 75 78 79 83 87 93 98 99 85 74 67 63 56 18HR AGO 60 59 63 66 69 72 73 77 81 87 92 93 79 68 61 57 50 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 62 65 66 70 74 80 85 86 72 61 54 50 43 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 53 56 57 61 65 71 76 77 63 52 45 41 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT