* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOAQUIN AL112015 09/29/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 39 41 43 48 52 55 54 52 47 42 41 43 44 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 39 41 43 48 52 55 54 52 47 32 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 40 40 41 43 47 51 52 49 43 31 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 18 16 17 15 9 7 13 26 31 40 37 32 18 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 2 2 0 -1 -3 -2 0 0 6 0 -5 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 354 11 4 12 10 349 272 212 180 182 164 159 173 212 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.3 27.2 25.8 21.6 22.2 22.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 159 161 161 161 161 162 157 141 128 113 86 88 87 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 135 136 136 134 134 136 134 121 110 97 76 77 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -52.6 -53.3 -53.7 -50.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 63 63 67 66 67 57 47 40 52 60 56 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 25 21 19 8 28 61 100 152 162 140 165 138 174 209 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 6 -6 -9 1 37 19 60 87 72 77 102 59 66 47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -2 -2 0 0 0 1 3 10 17 4 18 -1 -17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 758 761 766 754 741 709 672 652 641 470 276 172 44 -118 -358 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.5 28.1 29.4 31.2 33.6 36.3 38.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.4 70.8 71.3 71.7 72.2 72.9 73.3 73.6 73.8 73.8 73.8 73.9 74.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 5 8 10 13 13 12 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 46 42 43 47 53 56 58 34 19 14 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -4. -9. -14. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 19. 17. 12. 7. 6. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 26.6 70.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.96 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 133.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.3% 9.5% 6.7% 5.8% 9.0% 11.6% 23.5% Logistic: 5.9% 20.0% 11.0% 1.4% 0.8% 4.7% 12.2% 30.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 6.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6% 0.8% 2.8% Consensus: 3.9% 13.7% 7.4% 2.8% 2.2% 4.8% 8.2% 18.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 JOAQUIN 09/29/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 39 39 41 43 48 52 55 54 52 47 32 30 30 30 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 38 40 45 49 52 51 49 44 29 27 27 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 34 36 41 45 48 47 45 40 25 23 23 23 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 29 34 38 41 40 38 33 18 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT