* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112015 09/29/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 32 34 36 40 46 51 59 64 60 54 53 52 53 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 32 34 36 40 46 51 59 64 60 54 53 52 53 56 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 32 33 36 41 49 54 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 20 19 15 12 16 8 4 11 23 29 30 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -4 0 5 12 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 343 356 2 16 17 13 348 280 217 208 196 195 186 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.2 27.6 26.8 23.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 163 163 163 163 161 162 157 139 132 123 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 138 138 138 136 134 135 132 118 113 105 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -53.3 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 5 4 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 62 64 64 67 66 62 58 47 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 14 18 15 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 41 33 35 28 21 44 67 113 115 133 100 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 0 10 3 0 11 39 44 65 56 62 51 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 0 2 0 22 59 87 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 782 789 800 792 785 723 692 684 592 447 292 225 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.7 28.2 28.9 30.0 31.5 33.6 36.3 39.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.2 70.7 71.2 71.6 72.1 72.8 73.2 73.5 73.7 73.7 73.6 73.3 73.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 3 3 5 7 9 12 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 59 48 44 45 49 57 59 44 29 19 17 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):200/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. -4. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -5. -1. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 21. 29. 34. 30. 24. 23. 22. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.8 70.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 ELEVEN 09/29/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.30 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.12 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.71 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.91 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 12.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 11.1% 24.6% Logistic: 4.3% 17.5% 9.6% 1.3% 0.7% 3.8% 14.5% 39.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.8% Consensus: 2.8% 10.4% 6.1% 0.4% 0.2% 4.1% 8.6% 22.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 ELEVEN 09/29/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 ELEVEN 09/29/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 32 34 36 40 46 51 59 64 60 54 53 52 53 56 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 32 34 38 44 49 57 62 58 52 51 50 51 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 30 34 40 45 53 58 54 48 47 46 47 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 24 28 34 39 47 52 48 42 41 40 41 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT