* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112015 09/28/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 37 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 44 44 45 48 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 37 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 44 44 45 48 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 24 19 19 21 17 21 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -2 -2 -1 -1 -4 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 342 339 333 343 360 342 345 307 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 28.5 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 159 159 157 156 142 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 131 132 132 132 131 131 119 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 65 65 64 64 65 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 12 12 11 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 64 66 67 59 58 54 62 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 13 14 -14 -9 9 5 36 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 852 865 879 887 895 922 827 710 596 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.3 29.1 30.2 31.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.8 69.1 69.4 69.7 70.0 70.4 70.8 71.2 71.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 3 3 3 5 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 54 53 50 49 51 55 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -0. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 15. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.3 68.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.51 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.32 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.65 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.84 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 10.6% 7.2% 5.7% 4.9% 7.7% 8.1% 13.8% Logistic: 0.9% 3.8% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 1.4% 4.4% 16.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.8% 3.0% 2.1% 1.7% 3.0% 4.2% 10.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112015 ELEVEN 09/28/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 35 37 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 44 44 45 48 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 35 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 42 42 43 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 38 38 39 42 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 30 30 31 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT