* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 55 53 52 45 39 34 32 32 34 37 42 45 47 49 50 V (KT) LAND 55 56 55 53 52 45 39 34 32 32 34 37 42 45 47 49 50 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 56 54 51 44 39 36 33 31 29 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 21 22 23 21 24 30 25 19 12 15 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -2 -2 -2 -1 1 3 3 7 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 288 287 278 267 262 255 236 245 245 250 260 280 306 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.0 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 167 167 166 165 165 166 166 166 166 163 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -50.6 -51.4 -51.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.9 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 9 8 11 7 10 8 11 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 66 62 61 58 59 61 62 65 67 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 16 16 8 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -7 -10 11 19 17 16 7 -12 -14 -23 -3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 65 63 66 52 63 53 38 34 31 41 55 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 2 0 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -1 -2 -7 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 312 279 244 209 174 132 133 123 148 186 237 261 314 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.6 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.3 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.0 102.8 102.6 102.4 102.2 102.1 102.4 102.9 103.6 104.3 105.2 106.2 107.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 44 41 36 34 31 30 31 31 32 32 45 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -7. -13. -17. -19. -20. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -3. -10. -16. -21. -23. -23. -21. -18. -13. -10. -8. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.2 103.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.12 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.78 -5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.38 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 26.8% 20.7% 15.6% 11.0% 15.4% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 6.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 11.6% 7.6% 5.5% 4.1% 5.3% 5.0% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##