* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/28/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 33 33 31 29 28 27 28 28 29 33 33 35 36 35 V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 33 33 31 29 28 27 28 28 29 33 33 35 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 40 37 34 32 30 27 26 26 26 28 29 30 32 33 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 32 31 28 23 20 18 17 21 16 20 18 18 16 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 1 0 -1 1 -4 -2 -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 266 260 255 257 251 255 268 257 264 251 256 233 244 238 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 30.1 29.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 151 152 153 155 155 156 156 156 156 160 163 163 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 58 61 63 62 60 62 61 63 62 63 67 75 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 12 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 23 28 36 46 52 47 65 72 93 104 128 124 110 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 23 45 36 68 40 26 21 53 57 60 58 111 96 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 352 363 386 416 453 532 621 718 821 908 982 1057 1132 1030 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.6 13.3 13.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.1 155.7 156.3 156.9 157.4 158.6 159.7 160.8 161.8 162.8 163.7 164.7 165.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 12 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 29 33 38 47 57 51 45 42 40 38 41 48 38 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 30. 32. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -11. -11. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -11. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -12. -12. -11. -7. -6. -5. -4. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.8 155.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/28/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##