* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTY EP172015 09/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 57 60 61 59 51 44 36 33 32 36 43 46 49 51 53 V (KT) LAND 50 54 57 60 61 59 51 44 36 33 32 36 43 46 49 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 56 57 56 51 45 40 38 36 34 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 20 16 17 19 21 18 21 25 20 15 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 0 0 0 -1 0 2 6 7 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 282 262 262 260 257 248 228 244 234 253 211 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 167 167 165 164 165 165 165 167 167 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -51.2 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 7 9 8 10 7 10 8 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 69 68 66 64 60 59 62 66 63 65 64 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 18 15 8 5 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -23 -15 -7 -6 16 14 8 -3 -9 -29 -45 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 61 69 82 80 59 62 42 20 18 12 33 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 6 5 3 1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 353 312 271 236 201 146 124 100 101 111 128 202 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.1 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.0 17.0 16.8 16.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 102.9 102.8 102.6 102.4 102.2 101.9 101.7 101.6 101.9 102.6 103.4 104.4 105.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 3 3 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 53 45 42 37 33 33 31 30 30 31 32 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 6 CX,CY: 2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 25. 27. 30. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -10. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -8. -14. -18. -19. -19. -18. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 9. 1. -6. -14. -17. -18. -14. -7. -4. -1. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.7 102.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 MARTY 09/27/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.75 10.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.15 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.81 -8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 7.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 7.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.45 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.17 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 51.2% 34.1% 21.7% 13.8% 18.4% 25.2% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 32.2% 12.1% 6.8% 4.8% 3.7% 3.7% 4.9% Bayesian: 2.4% 23.2% 6.0% 1.8% 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 8.9% 35.5% 17.4% 10.1% 7.1% 7.4% 9.7% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 MARTY 09/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##