* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/27/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 42 45 45 45 49 53 57 59 62 64 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 42 45 45 45 49 53 57 59 62 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 23 23 25 27 29 29 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 17 12 9 5 14 21 27 24 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 2 2 3 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 228 249 265 270 322 354 350 351 354 358 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 29.0 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 135 137 140 151 162 164 165 164 166 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 117 121 125 136 148 149 147 144 144 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 39 40 41 42 43 49 55 56 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 8 7 6 7 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 39 39 45 41 36 26 19 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 14 4 -4 -5 2 0 8 -6 2 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -1 -5 0 0 1 -3 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1944 1881 1818 1723 1627 1401 1209 1063 963 889 831 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.6 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.7 23.9 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.2 48.8 49.4 50.3 51.2 53.5 55.7 57.7 59.2 60.4 61.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 11 10 8 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 19 21 31 34 35 39 41 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 36. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 20. 20. 24. 28. 32. 34. 37. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 24.7 48.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/27/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.35 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 208.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 20.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 8.9% 6.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 3.7% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 1.5% 3.0% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 4.2% 2.7% 1.8% 0.1% 0.5% 3.8% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/27/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/27/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 27 29 32 37 42 45 45 45 49 53 57 59 62 64 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 28 31 36 41 44 44 44 48 52 56 58 61 63 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 27 32 37 40 40 40 44 48 52 54 57 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 20 25 30 33 33 33 37 41 45 47 50 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT