* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/27/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 36 34 31 28 25 23 22 20 20 23 26 29 30 31 30 V (KT) LAND 45 40 36 34 31 28 25 23 22 20 20 23 26 29 30 31 30 V (KT) LGEM 45 40 36 33 30 26 24 22 23 23 24 25 25 26 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 33 33 31 31 26 21 21 20 25 23 23 20 14 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 262 266 261 261 256 264 261 272 264 279 259 261 240 190 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.8 30.1 30.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 148 149 152 156 157 156 157 157 162 163 167 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 61 58 58 59 61 63 64 64 65 68 67 79 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 10 11 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 13 16 25 43 51 62 70 86 91 107 122 139 146 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -4 -1 18 35 47 53 57 57 52 48 71 96 114 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 -1 -1 -5 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 353 317 288 287 306 392 502 634 767 873 958 1055 1159 1175 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.6 16.5 16.4 16.2 15.8 15.4 15.0 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.8 13.6 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.3 154.0 154.7 155.4 156.1 157.4 158.7 160.1 161.4 162.7 164.1 165.6 167.0 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 4 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 40 35 31 28 28 41 54 49 44 41 41 52 63 45 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 26. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -18. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -11. -10. -9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -25. -25. -22. -19. -16. -15. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.6 153.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.62 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/27/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##