* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVENTEEN EP172015 09/27/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 49 52 59 60 56 51 46 40 36 39 43 46 48 50 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 49 52 59 60 56 51 46 40 36 39 43 46 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 43 46 48 50 49 48 46 45 42 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 14 13 15 18 20 21 21 20 18 9 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 1 4 5 -2 1 -2 0 2 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 277 284 280 260 273 256 253 227 220 200 258 339 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 169 169 168 168 168 168 168 167 167 167 167 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 7 9 7 10 7 10 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 71 71 67 63 62 59 63 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 14 14 14 13 11 12 10 7 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -31 -31 -23 -15 -11 6 -8 3 11 14 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 64 55 67 62 29 13 4 24 30 36 0 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 5 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 498 459 421 385 350 283 222 155 122 116 117 122 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.9 16.9 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.0 102.8 102.4 101.9 101.8 102.0 102.3 102.5 102.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 82 82 80 71 63 48 42 35 33 32 32 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 49.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 40. 43. 46. 49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -8. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. -2. -6. -9. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 24. 25. 21. 16. 11. 5. 1. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 103.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172015 SEVENTEEN 09/27/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.88 10.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.36 3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 4.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.72 3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.28 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.5% 38.4% 28.6% 19.8% 15.7% 16.9% 19.8% 20.5% Logistic: 20.6% 56.3% 36.7% 23.8% 11.1% 21.9% 13.5% 29.5% Bayesian: 2.6% 20.6% 15.0% 6.0% 8.7% 19.4% 25.6% 6.9% Consensus: 12.9% 38.4% 26.8% 16.5% 11.8% 19.4% 19.6% 19.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172015 SEVENTEEN 09/27/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##