* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/26/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 36 39 42 44 44 45 45 47 49 49 52 55 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 36 39 42 44 44 45 45 47 49 49 52 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 31 32 33 35 36 38 38 38 36 35 33 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 19 13 12 16 12 10 14 17 27 23 28 29 30 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 2 3 2 3 4 2 3 3 1 6 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 255 259 234 225 262 262 325 343 344 334 341 349 345 7 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.6 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 132 133 137 145 162 162 163 164 164 165 165 165 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 114 113 115 120 129 146 146 146 145 143 144 143 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -54.9 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -55.2 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -54.7 -54.4 -54.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.6 -0.5 -0.8 -0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 33 36 39 40 43 44 46 46 45 45 43 45 44 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -3 11 39 35 28 27 18 26 12 14 0 -6 -16 -33 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -3 15 22 11 0 0 -20 -5 -8 11 -12 -10 -18 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 0 -4 -2 -5 -7 -6 -6 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2064 2028 1992 1957 1921 1801 1633 1444 1257 1095 973 902 842 798 764 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.5 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.8 47.2 47.7 48.0 48.4 49.5 51.1 53.0 55.0 56.8 58.4 59.5 60.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 4 7 8 9 9 8 6 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 21 23 22 21 19 25 35 35 39 42 45 49 52 55 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 762 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. 17. 19. 19. 22. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.2 46.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.58 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.50 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.68 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 11.6% 8.2% 6.5% 5.7% 8.3% 8.5% 11.9% Logistic: 1.0% 2.3% 1.4% 0.7% 0.1% 1.5% 1.1% 3.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.7% 3.2% 2.4% 1.9% 3.3% 3.2% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/26/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 34 36 39 42 44 44 45 45 47 49 49 52 55 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 35 38 41 43 43 44 44 46 48 48 51 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 34 37 39 39 40 40 42 44 44 47 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 26 29 31 31 32 32 34 36 36 39 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT