* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/26/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 37 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 59 62 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 37 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 59 62 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 33 34 36 38 40 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 21 19 16 17 11 18 11 14 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 2 4 5 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 268 275 273 262 256 236 237 259 264 312 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.4 29.0 29.6 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 132 132 131 133 135 141 151 161 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 116 115 113 115 118 124 135 145 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 -55.6 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 40 39 38 41 41 43 43 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 26 14 7 0 31 33 33 33 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -9 0 4 -1 16 0 3 -3 5 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 1 0 0 -1 -7 -4 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2084 2113 2108 2077 2048 1973 1849 1716 1563 1399 1239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.4 23.9 23.4 22.9 22.4 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.4 45.8 46.2 46.6 47.0 47.8 48.9 50.1 51.5 53.0 54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 5 4 4 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 24 23 22 22 22 19 23 33 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 29. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.5 45.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.13 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 8.3% 6.0% 4.6% 3.3% 6.9% 7.7% 11.3% Logistic: 1.1% 2.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.1% 2.4% 5.2% 10.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.7% 2.5% 1.8% 1.1% 3.1% 4.3% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/26/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/26/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 34 34 37 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 59 62 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 31 34 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 56 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 30 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 52 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 23 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 45 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT