* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NIALA CP062015 09/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 47 47 43 40 38 32 30 25 23 22 21 21 21 23 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 47 47 43 40 38 32 30 25 23 22 21 21 21 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 47 46 42 36 32 27 24 22 20 18 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 14 16 17 19 24 24 29 28 34 39 39 40 35 24 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 1 5 5 4 1 1 0 -1 -3 -5 -3 -6 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 294 281 267 274 262 253 259 253 263 259 265 264 265 260 272 262 276 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 145 147 147 148 147 146 146 147 148 148 146 148 151 153 160 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 62 60 57 57 56 54 51 50 51 49 47 60 66 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 19 12 8 7 20 42 49 64 72 75 82 65 96 108 102 200 MB DIV 19 25 44 42 40 26 10 20 27 16 12 -1 15 -5 59 75 60 700-850 TADV 4 4 5 6 10 7 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 -5 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 658 573 489 421 355 261 206 210 239 274 325 403 484 340 721 827 922 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.1 17.0 16.7 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 150.2 150.9 151.5 152.2 152.8 154.1 155.3 156.2 156.9 157.5 158.1 158.8 159.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 11 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 39 48 48 42 32 28 28 31 35 38 40 40 29 36 32 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 25. 26. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -26. -27. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -6. -5. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -2. -8. -10. -15. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 150.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP062015 NIALA 09/25/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.65 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 7.1% 13.6% 5.5% 3.7% 1.5% 3.8% 3.0% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 11.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP062015 NIALA 09/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##