* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/25/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 36 37 37 38 41 43 45 47 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 36 37 37 38 41 43 45 47 49 52 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 22 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 19 16 14 18 17 12 18 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -3 -4 -1 0 3 4 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 271 264 275 277 267 258 231 253 248 275 323 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.5 29.5 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 132 133 132 134 134 137 143 160 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 117 117 117 115 115 115 120 127 144 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -55.3 -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 8 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 42 42 41 40 39 42 40 42 43 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 38 26 12 1 15 25 21 25 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 1 -2 1 8 12 10 5 10 -19 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -5 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2069 2105 2122 2104 2080 2031 1964 1834 1687 1501 1309 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.3 22.8 23.3 23.9 24.4 25.0 25.0 24.3 23.7 23.1 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.3 45.6 45.9 46.3 46.7 47.4 48.1 49.2 50.5 52.2 54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 5 4 4 6 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 24 24 23 23 30 27 20 24 38 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.3 45.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.56 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.15 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 68.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.35 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 10.6% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.6% 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 2.3% 1.8% 4.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.4% 3.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/25/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/25/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 30 34 36 37 37 38 41 43 45 47 49 52 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 35 36 36 37 40 42 44 46 48 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 26 30 32 33 33 34 37 39 41 43 45 48 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 23 25 26 26 27 30 32 34 36 38 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT