* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/24/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 37 37 39 40 42 43 43 44 43 43 41 38 38 39 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 37 37 39 40 42 43 43 44 43 43 41 38 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 34 33 33 33 35 37 39 41 42 42 42 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 24 20 20 16 17 16 17 15 19 15 21 21 25 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 3 0 0 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 281 279 279 268 270 290 268 294 263 276 245 258 265 287 303 310 315 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.7 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 126 126 126 130 134 138 141 141 143 142 141 138 137 136 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 111 111 112 112 115 118 119 121 120 121 119 118 115 116 114 114 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.6 -55.5 -55.7 -55.7 -56.2 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 43 42 41 40 41 44 46 50 54 57 58 58 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 16 17 16 14 13 11 10 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 69 70 65 57 55 38 32 15 12 1 18 7 -6 -28 -41 -53 -41 200 MB DIV 2 9 19 28 16 6 10 1 11 2 0 -5 9 -6 -4 -10 -14 700-850 TADV 1 3 10 9 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 -1 -1 0 0 -3 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 1774 1806 1837 1877 1917 1987 2008 2006 1993 1989 1974 1962 1938 1913 1885 1838 1792 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.6 21.0 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.3 46.0 45.8 45.8 45.8 46.2 46.8 47.2 47.5 47.7 48.0 48.2 48.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 8 9 14 18 22 27 34 38 37 34 31 27 24 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 3. 3. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.8 46.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.39 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.78 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.48 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 10.0% 6.8% 4.9% 3.9% 7.0% 8.2% 12.5% Logistic: 1.0% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.7% 2.6% 1.7% 1.3% 2.5% 2.9% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/24/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/24/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 37 37 39 40 42 43 43 44 43 43 41 38 38 39 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 36 38 39 41 42 42 43 42 42 40 37 37 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 32 34 35 37 38 38 39 38 38 36 33 33 34 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 27 28 30 31 31 32 31 31 29 26 26 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT