* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/22/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 43 44 43 47 49 53 58 63 66 67 67 63 54 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 43 44 43 47 49 53 58 63 66 67 67 63 54 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 41 41 39 38 37 38 41 45 52 60 65 62 53 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 24 28 25 22 21 20 18 9 13 4 9 14 33 46 56 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 4 6 4 3 2 2 0 0 2 4 7 10 4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 277 293 295 293 293 294 280 293 283 284 250 212 222 234 243 239 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.5 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 133 131 129 126 128 131 134 136 141 151 150 143 141 139 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 119 118 116 114 111 113 115 118 119 123 131 129 122 118 116 110 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.4 -55.0 -55.4 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 58 55 52 49 46 44 45 47 48 51 52 53 45 37 31 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 19 21 22 22 19 21 20 21 22 24 26 29 32 33 28 850 MB ENV VOR -1 15 31 48 56 65 55 45 35 30 28 13 42 66 87 73 72 200 MB DIV 36 6 -5 22 24 11 33 9 12 9 25 22 45 39 23 0 18 700-850 TADV 3 -3 0 -1 5 4 10 5 5 2 2 9 4 -3 -13 -8 -5 LAND (KM) 1766 1782 1786 1792 1799 1827 1896 1952 2017 2037 2023 2034 2080 2167 2215 2157 2111 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.5 20.3 20.2 20.1 20.1 20.7 21.4 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.8 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.6 47.1 46.8 46.4 45.8 45.6 45.9 46.2 46.7 47.1 47.3 47.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 3 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 13 12 10 8 10 14 18 21 26 41 43 37 30 22 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 6 CX,CY: 5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -7. -11. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 11. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 7. 9. 13. 18. 23. 26. 27. 27. 23. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.6 48.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 191.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 9.4% 6.4% 4.9% 0.0% 6.0% 5.3% 9.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.5% 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 2.1% 1.8% 3.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/22/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/22/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 41 43 43 44 43 47 49 53 58 63 66 67 67 63 54 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 42 43 42 46 48 52 57 62 65 66 66 62 53 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 39 38 42 44 48 53 58 61 62 62 58 49 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 31 30 34 36 40 45 50 53 54 54 50 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT