* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MALIA CP052015 09/22/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 37 40 42 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 37 40 42 38 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 31 30 27 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 38 38 38 35 14 7 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 7 9 2 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 267 262 254 237 242 289 80 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.3 25.8 24.9 23.9 20.1 16.9 14.8 12.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 129 125 116 106 66 64 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -54.1 -55.0 -56.6 -56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 5 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 53 52 51 51 48 55 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 11 12 13 19 17 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 32 23 63 90 100 58 32 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 28 30 91 121 50 44 23 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 24 25 12 16 46 34 8 22 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1360 1516 1676 1895 2117 2317 1880 1496 1121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.5 29.0 30.4 32.3 34.2 38.1 41.4 44.4 47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 172.2 173.2 174.1 175.4 176.7 179.4 182.1 184.5 187.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 17 19 22 22 21 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 9 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -10. -19. -25. -27. -28. -31. -34. -41. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 7. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 6. 2. -1. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -2. 2. 1. -6. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 2. 5. 7. 3. -11. -24. -31. -36. -42. -48. -58. -66. -75. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 27.5 172.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP052015 MALIA 09/22/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 MALIA 09/22/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##