* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/21/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 30 31 30 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 30 31 30 29 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 38 35 29 29 35 33 29 24 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 4 5 6 8 11 3 6 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 259 267 267 265 263 257 236 237 247 219 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.3 28.4 27.7 26.9 25.6 23.0 21.2 17.7 14.2 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 149 142 134 121 95 76 64 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.7 -54.1 -54.9 -55.1 -57.3 -58.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 58 59 59 57 54 54 48 51 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 61 53 48 45 11 36 44 21 -29 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 64 46 48 60 46 39 120 54 66 28 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 27 12 12 17 4 57 53 46 26 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1216 1227 1254 1318 1393 1642 1960 2283 2040 1677 1277 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.9 25.1 26.3 27.6 28.8 31.7 34.8 38.1 41.5 45.1 48.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 171.9 171.8 171.6 171.7 171.8 172.6 173.9 175.5 177.6 179.9 182.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 19 17 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 10. 12. 13. 12. 11. 10. 7. 4. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. -0. -9. -21. -30. -34. -36. -38. -41. -45. -53. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -0. 1. -0. -1. -5. -13. -19. -21. -24. -29. -36. -43. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.9 171.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/21/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/21/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##