* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/21/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 41 41 42 43 46 50 52 55 56 57 60 63 66 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 41 41 42 43 46 50 52 55 56 57 60 63 66 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 40 41 41 41 42 42 41 41 41 42 44 49 54 60 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 7 9 6 5 13 20 26 22 21 15 15 11 15 14 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 5 9 9 7 8 6 3 0 1 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 254 251 252 251 269 286 299 302 311 303 311 285 297 281 269 247 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 137 138 138 138 135 135 136 141 147 152 156 157 155 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 126 123 121 119 119 116 116 118 124 130 133 136 136 135 125 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 68 69 69 70 68 67 64 58 56 53 48 48 49 51 54 58 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 13 14 15 16 17 17 16 15 15 16 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 14 9 17 13 6 15 27 38 54 60 49 37 23 7 4 -5 70 200 MB DIV 46 31 22 46 45 34 3 15 3 49 0 14 23 15 33 30 80 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 1 -1 0 -2 -4 -4 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 2 5 LAND (KM) 1640 1682 1727 1738 1744 1757 1766 1760 1753 1738 1734 1760 1736 1739 1774 1842 1922 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.4 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.3 21.2 21.0 20.9 20.8 21.2 22.0 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.3 48.0 48.3 48.6 48.7 48.5 48.4 48.4 48.5 48.9 49.3 49.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 5 3 0 1 0 0 1 4 4 4 5 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 16 16 17 19 20 19 18 17 18 21 27 29 31 30 31 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -3. -4. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 15. 16. 17. 20. 23. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.6 46.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.11 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.52 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.10 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 10.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 7.1% 9.1% Logistic: 1.2% 5.8% 2.4% 1.8% 0.8% 4.2% 6.5% 5.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.4% 3.1% 0.6% 0.3% 3.9% 4.5% 4.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/21/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 41 41 41 42 43 46 50 52 55 56 57 60 63 66 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 40 40 41 42 45 49 51 54 55 56 59 62 65 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 37 38 39 42 46 48 51 52 53 56 59 62 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 30 31 32 35 39 41 44 45 46 49 52 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT