* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/20/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 33 33 33 32 33 34 36 39 41 41 42 43 47 51 V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 33 33 33 32 33 34 36 39 41 41 42 43 47 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 33 32 32 33 34 35 35 36 36 38 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 9 6 5 10 12 19 16 24 20 23 18 21 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 5 6 4 5 7 6 5 4 -2 -4 -5 -7 -5 -7 -6 SHEAR DIR 287 277 267 280 289 192 246 275 290 290 294 301 298 301 296 297 318 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 134 135 136 139 137 134 133 134 134 135 136 139 146 149 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 127 127 126 125 120 116 115 116 116 118 119 122 127 130 134 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 64 67 67 66 67 67 68 63 60 56 56 54 53 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 14 14 13 11 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 18 12 8 11 6 2 -11 -2 14 25 29 21 19 9 2 -5 -8 200 MB DIV 47 22 39 40 40 21 18 25 -4 24 12 8 -2 18 -4 1 3 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -7 -9 -10 -2 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 1634 1607 1589 1596 1611 1660 1687 1685 1685 1685 1691 1713 1731 1750 1777 1773 1756 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.9 18.4 19.4 19.9 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.1 20.3 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 43.0 44.1 45.1 45.9 46.8 47.9 48.4 48.5 48.5 48.5 48.5 48.4 48.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 10 8 5 2 0 0 0 1 1 3 3 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 11 12 15 19 19 18 18 18 18 17 17 20 25 28 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 12. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.3 43.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.31 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 10.9% 7.3% 5.5% 4.8% 8.4% 8.5% 12.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 1.4% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 4.2% 2.7% 1.9% 1.6% 3.1% 3.3% 4.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/20/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 33 33 33 32 33 34 36 39 41 41 42 43 47 51 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 33 33 32 33 34 36 39 41 41 42 43 47 51 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 30 30 29 30 31 33 36 38 38 39 40 44 48 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 24 25 26 28 31 33 33 34 35 39 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT