* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/20/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 33 35 37 41 41 41 42 43 45 49 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 33 35 37 41 41 41 42 43 45 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 34 33 32 32 32 34 37 38 38 37 37 38 39 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 12 10 4 5 9 15 22 22 22 17 21 18 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 2 6 8 7 6 7 4 3 2 -2 -2 -4 -6 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 285 290 283 278 299 307 262 289 280 307 300 312 293 288 279 307 304 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.7 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.9 29.3 29.4 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 128 127 127 132 140 138 136 136 137 137 137 138 148 154 156 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 123 121 120 124 128 123 119 117 119 119 120 121 131 136 136 141 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -54.0 -53.6 -54.0 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 70 68 68 69 69 69 70 67 63 59 54 51 49 48 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 15 15 13 12 10 11 11 13 12 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 20 20 22 21 5 9 8 15 30 36 36 26 11 10 -2 -10 200 MB DIV 63 41 30 53 44 37 24 11 13 23 18 0 -1 -7 -7 -18 8 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -8 -7 -10 -7 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 1656 1638 1619 1619 1628 1677 1711 1715 1698 1685 1693 1723 1748 1771 1789 1782 1795 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.5 18.1 19.2 19.9 20.2 20.2 20.0 20.0 20.2 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.9 42.9 44.0 44.9 45.8 47.1 47.9 48.3 48.5 48.5 48.4 48.2 48.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 7 4 1 1 1 1 2 3 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 5 5 10 18 19 18 19 20 20 18 17 26 31 32 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -11. -10. -13. -16. -16. -18. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 41.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.52 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.54 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 113.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 13.1% 8.9% 6.8% 6.2% 9.3% 9.2% 12.8% Logistic: 0.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1.7% 2.9% 6.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.1% 3.2% 2.4% 2.1% 3.7% 4.0% 6.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/20/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/20/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 33 35 37 41 41 41 42 43 45 49 18HR AGO 35 34 33 33 33 32 32 32 34 36 40 40 40 41 42 44 48 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 30 30 30 32 34 38 38 38 39 40 42 46 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 24 24 24 26 28 32 32 32 33 34 36 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT