* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIVE CP052015 09/19/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 46 48 43 36 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 40 46 48 43 36 29 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 28 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 26 24 27 31 26 33 31 42 40 41 38 22 15 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 1 4 4 3 4 7 1 3 5 7 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 242 245 240 245 249 250 252 255 240 223 199 202 235 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.0 27.6 26.5 25.8 23.6 21.7 19.6 16.0 12.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 157 155 154 145 141 130 123 100 81 63 64 66 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.1 -0.2 0.7 1.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 63 64 63 62 61 58 60 60 59 58 56 62 62 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 13 14 14 16 16 16 14 13 13 14 13 12 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 59 70 64 57 72 64 57 39 59 74 129 188 150 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 27 49 67 57 80 72 67 56 91 75 95 81 24 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 7 7 9 14 19 32 26 36 40 50 29 12 9 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1426 1370 1320 1283 1253 1251 1308 1444 1634 1890 2192 2074 1870 1411 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.8 20.5 21.4 22.2 24.2 26.5 29.1 31.7 34.5 37.4 40.4 43.4 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 173.6 173.3 172.9 172.7 172.4 172.2 172.1 172.2 172.5 173.2 174.3 176.0 177.7 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 11 12 13 14 15 16 16 20 25 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 72 72 71 49 39 22 12 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 11. 17. 21. 23. 23. 22. 18. 14. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -9. -19. -31. -42. -47. -48. -49. -53. -62. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 3. 1. 2. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 16. 18. 13. 6. -1. -7. -16. -23. -31. -40. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.0 173.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.83 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 123.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.57 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.2 to -2.3 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP052015 FIVE 09/19/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##