* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092015 09/19/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 24 23 25 25 24 22 21 21 23 24 26 28 30 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 24 23 25 25 24 22 21 21 23 24 26 28 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 32 31 33 34 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 -1 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 237 227 217 224 216 202 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 140 143 146 153 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 129 130 133 135 140 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 52 52 53 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 56 49 54 63 57 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 4 31 23 19 42 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 1 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1529 1526 1525 1478 1437 1362 1232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.1 19.4 20.0 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.9 48.6 49.4 50.2 51.0 52.6 54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 30 34 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. 39. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -2. -9. -15. -21. -26. -29. -31. -34. -36. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.1 47.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092015 NINE 09/19/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.17 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.69 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.18 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.77 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.71 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 4.4% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 1.8% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.6% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092015 NINE 09/19/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092015 NINE 09/19/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 24 24 24 23 25 25 24 22 21 21 23 24 26 28 30 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 23 22 24 24 23 21 20 20 22 23 25 27 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 20 22 22 21 19 18 18 20 21 23 25 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT