* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN AL102015 09/18/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 45 47 48 47 47 48 51 52 55 56 58 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 45 47 48 47 47 48 51 52 55 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 40 41 41 41 41 43 46 48 52 54 57 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 9 10 9 16 15 9 7 7 5 9 6 11 13 19 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 0 1 3 6 3 5 4 5 2 3 2 2 2 SHEAR DIR 216 263 283 292 285 283 286 289 276 259 238 249 223 214 181 208 201 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.2 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 134 128 128 133 136 137 138 137 140 145 151 157 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 135 133 132 129 122 121 124 124 123 122 121 124 127 133 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -53.6 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 72 72 70 67 67 66 64 63 63 62 60 58 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 10 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 850 MB ENV VOR 39 34 24 24 20 12 0 -6 -6 -19 -14 -10 -1 -2 -7 0 0 200 MB DIV 71 64 28 14 29 24 27 42 34 12 21 5 20 5 25 7 32 700-850 TADV -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -4 -6 -4 -1 -4 -1 -2 0 -2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1820 1820 1783 1748 1717 1664 1623 1614 1635 1653 1668 1661 1633 1613 1588 1572 1549 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.8 16.8 17.8 18.6 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.0 37.6 38.3 39.1 39.9 41.9 43.8 45.5 46.7 47.6 48.2 48.7 49.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 8 6 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 25 21 17 7 6 11 17 19 20 20 23 30 38 45 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. 29. 30. 31. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 17. 18. 17. 17. 18. 21. 22. 25. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 37.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 TEN 09/18/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 66.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.86 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 17.6% 11.9% 8.6% 8.0% 10.8% 10.8% 15.7% Logistic: 6.7% 26.3% 14.5% 5.4% 2.5% 8.3% 13.9% 18.3% Bayesian: 2.6% 13.3% 3.2% 0.9% 1.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.6% Consensus: 5.2% 19.1% 9.9% 5.0% 4.0% 7.2% 8.6% 11.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 TEN 09/18/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 TEN 09/18/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 41 44 45 47 48 47 47 48 51 52 55 56 58 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 40 41 43 44 43 43 44 47 48 51 52 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 34 35 37 38 37 37 38 41 42 45 46 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 26 28 29 28 28 29 32 33 36 37 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT