* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/10/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 44 47 46 36 29 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 41 44 47 46 36 29 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 39 44 47 44 40 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 13 7 3 1 8 19 36 49 51 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 5 3 -1 2 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 201 208 254 319 275 280 274 298 320 304 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.6 27.0 20.5 13.9 12.7 15.8 16.7 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 136 134 128 85 72 71 76 78 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 114 118 116 111 77 69 68 72 75 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -55.1 -55.8 -56.5 -56.8 -56.2 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 51 52 55 64 63 57 47 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 10 9 9 11 11 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -51 -48 -29 12 7 -56 -100 -72 -15 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 11 30 18 53 37 37 -4 -49 -50 -41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 11 20 16 13 45 39 23 20 23 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1216 1072 934 805 661 423 237 659 1248 1367 699 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.2 34.7 36.1 37.8 39.5 43.0 45.8 47.6 47.8 46.2 44.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.8 60.5 60.3 59.6 58.9 55.6 50.3 44.0 36.1 26.8 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 18 20 22 24 24 30 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 16 19 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 1. -7. -15. -19. -24. -30. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 11. 1. -6. -15. -18. -22. -27. -29. -29. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.2 60.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.82 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 262.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.29 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.6% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/10/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 41 44 47 46 36 29 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 39 42 45 44 34 27 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 38 41 40 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 33 32 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT