* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/10/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 42 45 48 55 49 44 37 28 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 42 45 48 55 49 44 37 28 20 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 39 41 45 51 52 48 45 42 39 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 15 9 4 3 8 15 20 30 47 54 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 -3 1 2 3 4 0 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 196 191 210 232 259 283 278 279 306 321 294 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.6 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.2 21.2 15.6 14.4 17.7 16.1 16.9 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 131 133 136 130 87 73 73 78 75 77 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 113 113 115 118 112 79 70 70 74 72 73 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -55.1 -55.6 -56.3 -57.0 -57.5 -55.8 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 51 52 54 58 66 69 63 54 55 61 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 8 8 12 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -23 -27 -41 -37 18 6 -26 -72 -55 -13 44 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -3 -1 21 17 28 48 34 50 -1 -33 -38 1 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 10 9 10 19 14 47 42 16 -19 -43 -90 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1418 1317 1204 1057 915 643 458 227 627 1208 1491 1021 482 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.2 33.2 34.7 36.1 39.6 42.7 45.2 46.5 46.6 46.5 46.2 46.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.1 61.2 61.0 60.8 59.2 55.9 51.1 44.7 36.9 29.0 21.2 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 15 16 19 20 22 25 27 27 27 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 8 10 14 19 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. -2. -11. -19. -25. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -4. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 14. 20. 14. 9. 2. -7. -15. -19. -20. -20. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.1 61.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.73 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.25 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.4% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.7% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.7% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/10/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 42 45 48 55 49 44 37 28 20 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 42 45 52 46 41 34 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 37 40 47 41 36 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 33 40 34 29 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT