* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/09/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 81 72 65 56 47 38 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 81 72 65 56 47 38 28 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 80 72 64 57 46 38 32 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 9 13 15 13 19 19 22 22 23 22 24 22 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -4 -4 -2 -1 1 1 1 0 -3 -4 -5 -2 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 141 173 190 215 235 240 236 238 254 255 255 254 260 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.7 24.9 24.0 23.0 23.2 23.3 23.1 23.1 23.2 23.5 23.7 23.7 23.8 23.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 111 102 91 93 93 90 90 91 95 97 97 99 100 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -51.2 -51.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.7 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 66 61 59 55 50 49 45 41 34 30 27 24 20 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 27 26 23 22 18 16 13 11 9 8 6 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 37 40 36 24 43 32 44 25 14 2 6 25 32 38 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 -1 11 20 15 16 -7 0 -16 -10 -18 7 -11 -9 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 -2 3 3 1 0 4 0 3 0 2 -2 -1 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 437 456 444 437 430 457 542 618 675 741 811 895 975 1068 1175 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.5 24.1 24.7 25.3 26.3 26.9 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.0 116.6 117.1 117.7 118.3 119.3 120.4 121.3 122.2 123.0 123.8 124.7 125.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -25. -32. -39. -44. -48. -53. -56. -59. -62. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -6. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -16. -22. -26. -27. -28. -27. -26. -24. -22. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -18. -25. -34. -43. -52. -62. -73. -82. -90. -95.-100.-103.-105.-106.-106. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 22.8 116.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 373.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/09/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##