* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 33 32 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 33 32 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 32 28 26 24 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 27 33 36 35 39 43 46 54 43 33 48 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 0 0 1 0 0 -3 2 0 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 261 260 271 280 283 275 288 288 304 295 275 208 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.1 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.8 25.8 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 125 124 126 131 134 138 136 134 131 121 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 45 44 47 54 55 57 59 62 64 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 18 16 15 13 15 13 11 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -2 -15 -21 -22 -27 -9 -2 34 90 155 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -12 -8 -5 -8 -11 -2 34 -23 -11 62 103 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -14 -13 -8 -4 -11 -10 -6 -9 -7 5 23 -8 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 698 649 607 548 494 397 377 438 555 716 886 1077 1253 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.8 26.3 27.2 28.3 29.8 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 153.1 153.9 154.7 155.5 156.4 158.1 159.8 161.4 162.9 164.3 165.5 166.5 167.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 1 0 1 5 9 18 10 4 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. 14. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -6. -15. -30. -43. -51. -55. -64. -67. -72. -81. -86. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -9. -12. -16. -21. -21. -19. -17. -15. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -12. -17. -30. -44. -55. -58. -66. -71. -75. -82. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.5 153.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/08/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.48 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 309.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.04 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##