* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 84 84 83 77 71 62 54 47 42 37 35 31 29 27 25 V (KT) LAND 80 81 84 84 83 77 71 62 54 47 42 37 35 31 29 27 25 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 80 79 77 68 58 49 44 39 36 33 30 28 26 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 11 12 13 7 5 4 6 4 6 6 10 8 8 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -4 -3 0 3 2 3 3 0 0 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 77 97 96 95 98 105 155 207 207 259 258 282 265 301 291 283 256 SST (C) 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.4 26.5 24.9 24.1 23.7 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 145 138 128 111 102 98 98 99 100 101 102 103 103 103 105 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.3 -50.6 -50.1 -49.6 -50.2 -49.7 -50.1 -50.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 3 3 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 82 78 78 77 74 70 66 61 54 48 44 41 37 32 29 28 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 30 30 29 28 28 24 22 20 18 15 13 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 46 51 53 77 62 41 40 32 39 34 22 17 6 0 -7 -7 0 200 MB DIV 125 98 85 67 64 7 27 7 -7 -9 -9 -6 -16 -11 -19 -1 4 700-850 TADV -1 1 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 1 2 0 1 1 3 0 4 0 2 LAND (KM) 544 500 479 462 420 397 408 408 446 521 607 703 802 885 968 1026 1093 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.8 23.2 24.3 25.2 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.7 114.3 114.8 115.8 116.8 117.9 118.9 119.9 120.9 121.9 122.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 11 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -14. -19. -24. -27. -31. -34. -37. -40. -43. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 4. 3. -3. -9. -18. -26. -33. -38. -43. -45. -49. -51. -53. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.6 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.30 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.58 4.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.63 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.53 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.9% 25.3% 18.1% 13.3% 9.7% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 13.6% 3.0% 2.2% 1.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.5% 13.1% 7.1% 5.2% 3.6% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##