* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 30 29 28 28 27 28 28 29 32 35 37 39 41 42 45 V (KT) LAND 35 33 30 29 28 28 27 28 28 29 32 35 37 39 41 42 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 29 27 25 22 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 20 21 21 25 23 22 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 7 6 3 0 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 242 249 247 250 264 269 276 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 139 136 136 141 151 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 139 139 136 136 141 151 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 45 44 43 45 45 45 45 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 10 0 0 -18 -20 -24 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 10 0 4 13 5 27 0 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -6 -4 -1 -5 -8 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1781 1652 1534 1432 1334 1180 1083 815 625 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 38.4 40.0 41.7 43.3 45.0 48.3 51.8 55.3 58.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 12 21 27 34 19 31 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -3. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.9 38.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/08/15 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.28 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 8.5% 5.8% 4.8% 4.2% 6.6% 5.6% 8.8% Logistic: 0.9% 1.6% 0.8% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 3.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE 09/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/08/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 30 29 28 28 27 28 28 29 32 35 37 39 41 42 45 18HR AGO 35 34 31 30 29 29 28 29 29 30 33 36 38 40 42 43 46 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 29 28 29 29 30 33 36 38 40 42 43 46 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 24 23 24 24 25 28 31 33 35 37 38 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT