* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 88 94 96 97 96 88 75 64 55 47 41 36 33 31 30 28 V (KT) LAND 80 88 94 96 97 96 88 75 64 55 47 41 36 33 31 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 80 88 92 93 92 85 73 62 52 46 41 37 33 31 29 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 7 4 6 7 6 7 5 5 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -7 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 SHEAR DIR 50 63 98 128 115 117 104 159 230 190 234 227 252 219 247 219 208 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.5 27.9 27.3 26.1 24.9 23.9 23.8 24.0 24.0 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.6 24.8 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 160 155 150 143 137 124 111 100 98 100 100 103 102 104 106 108 109 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -50.0 -50.6 -50.8 -49.9 -50.5 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 84 83 80 77 75 71 67 63 59 53 48 44 39 37 35 33 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 26 26 28 27 25 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 35 48 59 60 58 66 40 29 15 28 33 28 24 22 8 7 3 200 MB DIV 95 93 107 106 99 56 -5 8 9 1 7 -11 -10 -8 0 -8 0 700-850 TADV -6 -3 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 1 4 0 3 1 4 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 661 591 544 527 513 458 463 438 446 507 599 712 824 907 997 1073 1156 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.2 19.1 19.9 20.7 22.1 23.4 24.6 25.4 25.8 26.0 26.0 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.6 113.3 114.0 114.6 115.7 116.6 117.6 118.6 119.6 120.7 121.9 123.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 30 17 11 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. -0. -5. -11. -16. -21. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. -0. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 16. 17. 16. 8. -5. -16. -25. -33. -39. -44. -47. -49. -50. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.2 111.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 4.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 8.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.53 5.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 6.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 6.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 6.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.11 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.59 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 44.0% 49.5% 32.6% 23.5% 12.7% 17.2% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 31.5% 44.1% 19.0% 15.6% 7.2% 7.8% 2.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 43.6% 20.1% 28.6% 19.9% 5.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 39.7% 37.9% 26.7% 19.6% 8.5% 8.5% 4.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##