* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 44 47 49 49 48 48 46 45 45 46 47 45 45 49 48 V (KT) LAND 40 43 44 47 49 49 48 48 46 45 45 46 47 45 45 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 48 49 47 44 40 37 34 31 29 27 25 22 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 4 7 13 12 18 23 26 24 30 34 37 31 21 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 10 8 5 10 11 7 6 4 2 0 0 0 -1 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 141 214 221 203 226 247 247 235 235 241 262 261 260 249 252 245 277 SST (C) 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 147 147 144 141 139 138 137 135 138 141 145 154 151 156 160 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 147 147 144 141 139 138 137 134 136 139 142 152 147 153 157 157 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 54 52 49 50 49 48 48 47 47 46 45 47 46 47 52 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 15 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 28 24 23 19 13 9 1 -8 -14 -7 -16 -21 -33 -25 -31 200 MB DIV 3 -10 -8 -2 -1 11 10 26 -7 8 -3 -5 2 17 0 27 -24 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 -3 -4 -12 -12 2 0 -8 -4 -3 0 -3 0 -1 -2 LAND (KM) 1284 1430 1577 1725 1874 1833 1617 1436 1267 1137 1069 920 748 666 448 164 0 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.5 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.2 30.6 32.0 33.4 34.8 37.5 40.3 43.1 46.0 48.8 51.5 54.0 56.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 13 12 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 14 17 19 17 12 18 26 25 18 26 39 55 50 49 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 5. 5. 9. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.7 29.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/06/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.56 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.67 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 15.7% 10.6% 8.2% 7.7% 10.4% 10.5% 12.8% Logistic: 6.2% 14.2% 12.7% 7.4% 2.6% 5.1% 2.5% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 4.8% 5.2% 0.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 4.3% 11.5% 9.5% 5.3% 3.5% 5.5% 4.4% 4.8% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/06/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 44 47 49 49 48 48 46 45 45 46 47 45 45 49 47 18HR AGO 40 39 40 43 45 45 44 44 42 41 41 42 43 41 41 45 43 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 41 40 40 38 37 37 38 39 37 37 41 39 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 32 31 31 29 28 28 29 30 28 28 32 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT