* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152015 09/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 48 59 68 76 80 77 72 69 67 66 64 64 64 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 48 59 68 76 80 77 72 69 67 66 64 64 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 42 50 60 67 69 67 62 59 56 52 49 47 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 8 5 5 8 10 11 11 14 12 10 9 9 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -6 -5 -2 -4 -2 -5 -4 -5 -5 -5 -2 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 23 19 16 33 41 92 116 121 134 126 144 136 155 158 187 200 181 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.3 28.3 27.3 26.9 26.2 26.0 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.7 25.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 161 164 164 158 147 136 132 124 122 116 119 119 119 113 110 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 85 84 82 76 73 66 60 58 53 46 41 38 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 20 20 22 23 22 21 20 20 19 17 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 33 27 21 18 25 40 68 53 42 32 26 6 10 2 24 200 MB DIV 85 70 83 104 92 79 105 86 71 17 13 2 0 3 3 -1 0 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -1 -1 1 1 0 2 2 4 4 7 3 6 LAND (KM) 737 708 693 693 705 632 605 643 652 704 780 855 942 1072 1201 1324 1405 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.6 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.1 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.0 110.7 112.2 113.7 115.1 116.5 117.8 119.1 120.7 122.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 26 20 21 23 26 26 9 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 28. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 9. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 18. 29. 38. 46. 50. 47. 42. 39. 37. 36. 34. 34. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 107.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP152015 FIFTEEN 09/06/15 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.86 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.62 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : -27.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.94 -6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.89 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 34.5% 21.6% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 51.8% 54.5% Logistic: 6.3% 46.2% 26.2% 12.7% 13.1% 39.5% 66.1% 20.5% Bayesian: 3.7% 24.3% 14.6% 4.9% 0.8% 48.6% 46.6% 10.3% Consensus: 7.2% 35.0% 20.8% 11.2% 4.6% 29.4% 54.8% 28.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 FIFTEEN 09/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##